ACI World predicts 5.6 billion fewer passengers in 2020

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Analysis conducted by ACI World reveals what it believes to be the actual and predicted impact on the global airport business of the Covid-19 pandemic. In its fourth economic analysis bulletin, the organization says that the airport industry is anticipating a 59.6% reduction in passenger volumes in 2020 compared with the pre-Covid-19 forecast for the year and a 58.4% reduction in passengers compared with 2019, equating to a reduction in passengers of 5.6 billion for the year.

Additionally, the report states that the airport industry is anticipating a 60% reduction in revenues compared with the projected 2020 baseline. Revenues declined by US$10.3bn and US$39.5bn in Q1 and Q2 2020, respectively. The revenue shortfall is expected to lessen to US$33.4bn and US$21.1bn in Q3 and Q4 2020 respectively, with the industry predicted to record an unprecedented US$104.5bn reduction in revenue for 2020.

ACI also highlighted a significant level of uncertainty surrounding the recovery trajectory, predicting that, by December, monthly traffic may reach between 27% and 60% of the projected baseline for December 2020. Its most likely baseline scenario suggests passenger traffic volumes to reach 56%. Globally, its forecasts show passenger traffic volumes will not recover to 2019 levels before 2023 and markets that have significant international traffic will not recover until 2024.

Commenting on the figures, ACI World director general Luis Felipe de Oliveira said, “Airports are key drivers of economic development but, without any support from governments and with US$104bn in losses because of the devastating impact of the pandemic on aviation, it is now the time to come together to support recovery.

“As air transport has always been an industry based on the interdependence of all its parts, the Covid-19 crisis devastated all stakeholders—from aircraft manufacturers and travel agents to retailers in airports—and resulted in job losses, business shutdowns, bankruptcies, and other instances of economic devastation.”

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